Paul Oberjuerge header image 2

Pitching, and 90 Per Cent of the Game

October 10th, 2010 · No Comments · Baseball, France

Baseball’s divisional series have become somewhat dreary. Somebody overwhelms somebody else, and it usually is based on the winner having three good starting pitchers.

Consider the stat I saw today:

Tampa Bay and Texas are going to a Game 5 … and it is the first Game 5 since 2005.

Thus, 17 consecutive series went either three or four games between 2005 (when the Angels-Yankees went five) and now. Four series in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and the Yankees-Twins series this year. (The Phillies’ sweep of the Reds came after Tampa Bay had guaranteed a Game 5, so we won’t count that one.)

It’s rather boring. An “ultimate” game in a five-game series about once every five years?

It takes us back to the “built for 162” vs. “built for a short series” concepts.

Baseball had several teams that were good for the grind of 162 … that do not look much like “short-series” teams. These include the Rays, Twins, Reds, Rangers and Braves — and even the Padres, who won 90.

The Padres didn’t make the playoffs, the Twins and Reds are already out and either the Rays or Rangers will be in a moment. The Braves are down 2-1.

The point now seems to be — and some of us were slow to pick up on this — that your needs from the moment you complete those 162 change fairly dramatically. What matters is the top three guys in your rotation, your “when-we’re-ahead” relievers and a decent offense. With the emphasis on the starting pitchers.

The Yankees are in the ALCS with Sabathia, Pettitte and Hughes having led a sweep. Minny answered (feebly) with Liriano, Pavano and Duensing.

The Phillies are in the NLCS with Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels having led a sweep of the Reds, who were the best hitting team in the NL but could do no better than Volquez, Arroyo and Cueto as their starters in their three defeats.

The Giants lead 2-1 with Lincecum, Cain and Sanchez all having pitched well.

And the five-game series matches the Rangers, who have one genuine ace (Cliff Lee) vs. the Rays, who have one semi-ace (Price). They meet in Game 5, and the smart money would be on Lee. And the smarter money would be on the survivor losing to the built-for-the-playoffs Yankees.

The extra round of playoffs just exacerbates all this. The five-game series is so heavily skewed toward the front end of a rotation that to lose the opener is a killer, because if the other guys have more good pitching you have no chance to come back.

It was Billy Beane, in Oakland, who explained away the Athletics’ postseason troubles, back when they were making the playoffs, by suggesting that what works for 162 doesn’t necessarily work for a best-of-five or best-of-seven.  And he’s right. If you don’t go three-deep in quality starting pitchers, you’re dead. You might have four, even five “competent” guys, but the fifth guy is absolutely unneeded, and if you have a workhorse like Sabathia or Halladay, you might not even need the fourth guy.

What you need is the money to buy a couple of aces and a really good No. 3. It’s no accident that the Yankees and Phillies are still playing. The Yankees have the highest payroll in baseball. Philly is No. 4. And the Giants are No. 10.

The Reds were 19. The Twins 11, though they are paying too much to position players. The Rangers were 27 (though they took on Lee’s salary in midseason, or they would already be gone), and the Rays are 21 and plan to slash salary and couldn’t even think about finding a good No. 2 starter, after Shields went south.

Baseball men always have said “pitching is 90 percent of the game.” For the modern postseason, it’s more like 95 percent. It makes the postseason too predictable, and diminishes the value of the all-around “162-game” teams.

Tags:

0 responses so far ↓

  • There are no comments yet...Kick things off by filling out the form below.

Leave a Comment