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Westbrook, Harden, Durant, Cousins …

November 9th, 2016 · No Comments · Basketball, NBA

I belong to a fantasy basketball league made up of a half-dozen former co-workers, a competition we have been contesting for two or three decades now. The SHL (Sun Hoops League).

Our league was developed independently of others, but it turns out we use pretty much the same stats as more formal leagues: Scoring, field-goal percentage, free-throw percentage, rebounds, assists and steals/blocks.

Hours before the NBA season began, back on October 25, we held our draft, and this is how it went at the top:

1. Russell Westbrook. The sense is that the Oklahoma City Thunder guard, who is a force of nature, will put up huge numbers now that Kevin Durant has left the team. That has been the case so far. He was the consensus No. 1 pick, too. Not sure anyone was thinking anyone else there. A year ago, he was the fifth pick.

2. James Harden. He continues his rise in the SHL draft. A year ago he was No. 6, but that was before he was appointed Houston Rockets point guard, meaning the ball will be in his hands even more than it has been in the past. Could score 30 with 10 assists per game.

3. Kevin Durant. This was my pick. We draft by three positions: Forward, guard, center. And the ranks of elite scorers who play forward are not large. That helped me pick Durant despite his joining the Golden State Warriors and perhaps having to share the ball more than he did in OKC. He went No. 3 a year ago, too.

4. DeMarcus Cousins. The list of elite centers is two people long. Cousins is the proven commodity, though he remains emotionally unpredictable and probably will miss a few games because of suspensions. A year ago, he went No. 7 — to the guy who won the league.

5. LeBron James. The best player in basketball has not been the best player in fantasy for a few years now, and his being a forward probably got him into the first round — because he will not average 30 points per game (the top four might), and probably not 25, and maybe closer to 20, now that he has more fully embraced his role as regular-season facilitator. The owner who took him was complaining about his scoring before the first week was over. He was the No. 2 pick a year ago, and half the league sniggered. He was the No. 5 scorer, a year ago.

6. Anthony Davis. The New Orleans forward was the somewhat curious No.1 pick a year ago, then struggled with injuries, missing 21 of 82 games. Most of the league would have had no problem with him going 6.

7. Chris Paul. The first overtly “what was he thinking?” pick in the draft. Paul probably would have been available with the 15th pick, and maybe the 20th, because he will not average 20 points per game, and it is nearly impossible to win our league without a couple of elite scorers. The biggest thing? There was an elite scorer available by the name of …

8. Stephen Curry. The No. 4 pick, a year ago, and the unanimous MVP. He kept this owner at the top of the league for most of the season before fading at the end. This certainly seems late, but it is almost understandable, given concerns that his scoring last season (30.1 per game, best in the NBA) will be hurt by Durant joining the Warriors.

9. Karl-Anthony Towns. The “other” elite center. We think. Only his second season, but he scored 18.3 ppg with 10.5 rebounds per game and high shooting percentages as a rookie. Also, the drop to the No. 3 center in the NBA is a precipitous one.

10. Damian Lillard. The Portland guard had a career year last season, scoring 25.1 ppg, but he fell a couple of spots from No. 8 in last year’s draft. He was my second pick, and I felt like I was taking someone at the top of the second tier of players, Towns having completed the first tier.

11. Blake Griffin. A bit of a surprise. ESPN’s preseason draft suggested he is the 25th-best fantasy player, and that seemed more reasonable than him going 11th, but if he averages 20-something and 10, he makes sense. He went No. 10 in our draft a year ago.

12. Paul George. Probably the last of the forwards who might score 25 ppg. He went 19 a year ago, when he was coming back from an awful injury. Also, he is the undisputed shot-taker on a decent team (Indiana), which is always a factor.

13. Isaiah Thomas. The Celtics point guard looks ready for a big season, having ranked 11th in scoring a season ago at 22.2 ppg. His peripherals are a little soft.

14. DeMar DeRozan. This seemed like a reach at the time of the draft, but the Toronto shooting guard leads the league in scoring at this writing, and it he stays over 25 (let alone 30) he can help plug the scoring gap left by Chris Paul — who is the other guard on this SHL team. However, DeRozan is also fairly notorious for being weak at any aspect of the game that is not scoring, from field-goal percentage to rebounds, assists, blocks, steals …

15. Hassan Whiteside. The new centerpiece of the Miami Heat, and the last center who might be elite this season. A shot-blocker extraordinaire, an excellent rebounder, a shooter in the 60-plus-percentage area. But can he score 20 a game? Probably not.

16. Kawhi Leonard. Now the undisputed leader of a very good team, the San Antonio Spurs, and a fine all-around player — will score 20-plus, make more than half his field-goal attempts and will average around seven rebounds per game. A year ago, he went 18, then scored 21.2 ppg.

17. Kyrie Irving. If LeBron plays mostly as a point-forward, Irving could have a big scoring year, perhaps leading the Cavaliers in shots as well as points. If LBJ decides he is OK scoring around 22 ppg, Kyrie becomes Cleveland’s leader in shots.

18. John Wall. The Washington point guard has been good, but climbing to “great” has eluded him. Will score in the low 20s and average something like 10 assists.

19. Kyle Lowry. The second half of the double-pick by the owner who took Cousins and Griffin with his first two picks. Lowry was a revelation in the playoffs, but he scored less than 20 ppg during the regular season, which can be a problem in a six-team league.

20. Kemba Walker. The Charlotte guard joined the team of LeBron, Paul George and Thomas, and he should be fine, especially if he improves his 41.9 shooting percentage from the field.

21. Kristaps Porzingis. The New York Knicks forward is one of those guys who is better in real life than in fantasy. His shooting percentage is shaky, he will not score 18 ppg (never mind 20) and is not a good rebounder. He joins the team of Anthony Davis, Paul and DeRozan.

22. Paul Millsap. The focal point of Atlanta’s balanced attack went to the owner who found himself needing two forwards from a depleted list of options. Millsap could go 18-and-7 (points/rebounds), which is what you get when you let the top six forwards go somewhere else.

23. Giannis Antetokounmpo. The “Greek Freak” was ranked the No. 10 fantasy pick by ESPN, but he is unlikely to score much above 18 ppg, which is why he was available here.

24. Carmelo Anthony. The Knicks forward has acquired a “nearly man” reputation as the best player on teams often not very good. Considered selfish, but he will score in the low 20s and rebound a little, and it’s getting late for useful forwards.

25. Nicola Vucevic. No way he is the 25th-best player in ball, but I picked him because I was completing my first team, and I needed a center. He could be competent, and score 18 or 19 with 8 or 9 rebounds. If he does much less, my team is doomed.

26. Andrew Wiggins. The most-selfish, least-well-rounded scorer in the game? We designated him a forward, and if he shows some talent at doing things other than score he could be a steal with the 26th pick. He will score 20-plus; the question is how awful he will be at any other basketball skills.

27. Brook Lopez. Three centers were going right in here, and the Nets center certainly can score and make a nice percentage of his shots. He’s a wretched rebounder and shot blocker, however, and any assists he makes will be by accident.

28. Andre Drummond. Another “I need a center” pick. The Pistons center will rebound like crazy, will score about 17-18 a game, but he could single-handedly destroy his team’s FT percentage. He makes about 34 percent of his free throws, worse than DeAndre Jordan.

29. LaMarcus Aldridge. He scored lots in Portland but fell to 18 ppg in his first season in San Antonio. If he regains his former scoring touch, he could be a nice pickup as the last starting forward into the league. Went 21st, a year ago.

30. Jimmy Butler. The last “starting” player into the league. The Bulls guard scored a shade under 21 ppg last season, which makes this a solid pick, but his peripherals are weak and the Chicago backcourt looks a bit crowded, with Dwayne Wade and Rajon Rondo also vying for minutes.

The six 10-man rosters. (Statistics are kept only on the five designated starters.)

Team A
F: Millsap (22), Aldridge (29), Nowitzki (43), M. Williams (57)
G: Westbrook (1), Curry (8), R. Jackson (37), Holiday (50)
C: Whiteside (15), Horford (36)
Team B
F: Leonard (16), Antetokounmpo (23), Hayward (38), J. Parker (58)
G: Harden (2), J. Butler (30), Bledsoe (31), D. Russell (51)
C: Towns (9), P. Gasol (44)
Team C (me)
F: Durant (3), C. Anthony (24), Love (39), Gay (45)
G: Lillard (10), Irving (17), K. Thompson (32), Wade (52)
C: Vucevic (25), Howard (59)
Team D
F: Griffin (11), Wiggins (26), Gallinari (46), Parsons (53)
G: Wall (18), Lowry (19), McCollum (33), Teague (60)
C: Cousins (4), M. Gasol (40)
Team E
F: James (5), George (12), Favors (41), R. Anderson (55)
G: I. Thomas (13), K. Walker (20), Booker (34), Dragic (54)
C: B. Lopez (27), Okafor (47)
Team F
F: A. Davis (6), Porzingis (21), D. Green (49), Marc. Morris (56)
G: Paul (7), DeRozan (14), Conley (35), Oladipo (48)
C: Drummond (28), Kanter (42)

 

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