A lot of people who watched Kansas and Memphis play for the NCAA basketball championship last night probably assumed Calipari & Co. soon would be cutting down the nets when Memphis took a nine-point lead, at 60-51, with 2:12 to play.Or when the Tigers led by six, 62-56, with 1:39 to play.
That game was done, done done. Right?
Wrong says Bill James … yes, THAT Bill James, the baseball sabremetrician. The most perceptive ball analyst of our age and, it turns out, a Kansas basketball fan.
James’ genius is of a mathematical bent, but he also writes extremely well. A rare combination. And in this article for Slate he sets out his formula for knowing when a basketball game is over. Like, OVER, it’s-safe-to-leave … even with time on the clock.
We in the L.A. market can relate to this after decades of listening to Chick Hearn, the late, great Lakers announcer, famously put a game “in the refrigerator.” Meaning it was over, with no hope of the leading team losing the game.
For those of you who never had the pleasure of hearing Chick do a game, here’s how Chick “called” a game, and it rarely varied by even one word:
Said Chick: “The game’s in the refrigerator: The door is closed, the lights are out, the eggs are cooling, the butter’s getting hard and the Jell-O’s jigglin’.”
James’ formula, which he allows you to tinker with, online, seems excessively conservative, at first glance. He puts Memphis “certainty” at winning the game when it led by nine with 2:12 left at only 23 percent. I’d think it would be higher (even knowing Memphis’ rep for missing free throws). And up seven with 1:39 to play rates only a tepid 6 percent on the “in the refrigerator” scale.
It’s a fun read. And it reminds me of Chick, who must have had some innate sense of the Point of No Return being reached without resorting to James’ numbers-driven formula. My recollection is that Chick erred on the “refrigerator” scale only once or twice in his career. Does anyone recall a specific instance?
Anyway, James wrote this piece well before last night’s game. So when his Jayhawks were down nine with 121 seconds left, and most KU fans were despondent, he knew it was anything but over. And he was right.
4 responses so far ↓
1 Char Han // Apr 8, 2008 at 6:19 PM
Since Chick’s death, it’s not the same following a Lakers game, and his famous saying is one reason why.
2 nickj // Apr 8, 2008 at 7:55 PM
or, how about when the cbs guy (dont remember which one) called the kansas/north carolina game with 7plus left in the first half on saturday. i couldnt believe it, and when unc came all the way back, i was SOO hoping they would win so that guy would look bad. the other commentator (nance?) even called him out on it and he breathed a sigh of relief when kansas rallied at the end.
love that ‘game over’ calculation.
3 chickfan // Apr 9, 2008 at 10:52 AM
One of the times when it was errounously put in the refridgerator was in the early 90s against the Charles Barkley-led Phoenix Suns.
4 Ian Cahir // Apr 10, 2008 at 5:52 AM
Imagine being at a bar in Lawrence, KS, like I was on Saturday, nickj. When Billy Packer called the game over, the entire place groaned and screamed at him. Note that Packer didn’t do that again with 2:12 left on Monday night.
And the Chick factor is ALWAYS what I think of when I’m watching any game. Would Chick put it in the fridge.
And remember, Chick always said he would buy hamburgers if he got it wrong. I remember only once in my lifetime, and Stu Lantz said it was the best hamburger he ever had.
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