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A Dangerous Draw in Palestine

September 8th, 2015 · No Comments · Fifa, Football, Olympics, soccer, The National, UAE, World Cup

Qualifying for the 2018 World Cup is really the only international sports story of any significance in the UAE over the next two years.

Some runners, swimmers and shooters will go to the Rio Olympics, the government is crazy about jiu-jitsu, various global golf and tennis and cycling tours will pass through the country between now and then …

But if we ranked this on a descending order of importance, it would look something like: 5) Olympics; 4) jiu-jitsu; 3) soccer; 2) soccer; 1) soccer.

And it is that very nearly “all-in” aspect of the country’s hopes for its best batch of soccer players in a generation that made a scoreless draw with Palestine tonight a troubling development.

The way is now open to the Emiratis not moving on to the final round of Asia qualifying for Russia 2018. Which would be, oh, a sporting calamity.

Here is how the wheels come off at least one round too early:

–The UAE loses twice to Saudi Arabia. This certainly can happen. Saudi is not as strong as it was during the four-successive-World Cups run of 1994-2006, but it is a significant regional player, and the Saudis seems to hold a psychological edge over the UAE, in soccer. And they seem to have discovered the best way to keep the UAE under control — by repeatedly kicking and pushing around little Omar Abdulrahman, the UAE’s best player.

–The UAE draws again in the return match with Palestine (or, heaven forfend, loses), and the latter looked pretty solid tonight. (And lost only 3-2 to Saudi in Jeddah earlier in the round.)

Even if the Emiratis won their other two remaining Group A matches, getting one more point from Palestine would mean they end the round with eight points — because their results against the fifth-place team (East Timor or Malaysia) will be thrown out.

Why? Because Indonesia contrived to get themselves banished from Round 2 by Fifa (for government interference in the domestic soccer organization), leaving Group F with only four teams — and to make things fair, results against the fifth-place team in the other seven groups will be discarded.

Thus, the UAE likely will lose six points from their (apparent) group total of 14.

If the UAE is third, it cannot move ahead in World Cup qualifying. The campaign would be over.

If the UAE is second, it would have to rank among the top four second-place teams in the competition to make the final 12, and this is where it could get very dicey and very complicated.

Among the second-place teams, at the moment, are Japan, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan and Uzbekistan, and any four of them could do better than the UAE with a projected eight points — two from Palestine, six from East Timor or Malaysia.

Thus, we now look ahead to October 8, when the Emiratis play at Saudi Arabia. If they can escape Jeddah with a point, the chances of them escaping the group, as well, improve significantly, as do the chances of their winning it.

This probably will come down to the final two matches of the round: home against Palestine on March 24, home against Saudi on March 29.

Looking back, this got tricky way on April 14, at the Asian draw, when the UAE, which was in Pot 1, got what appeared to be the most formidable side in Pot 2, the Saudis, as well as the most formidable side in Pot 3, Palestine.

(On the eve of the draw, I wrote in The National that the worst-case scenario for the UAE would include those two, and that is what happened.)

The UAE could have gotten Vietnam, Oman, Bahrain, all eminently beatable, from Pot 2 … and Afghanistan, Maldives, Tajikistan, Thailand (et al) from Pot 3. But no. It was Saudi and Palestine.

So, soccer fans in the UAE fret. And will continue to do so, for good reason, barring a victory in Saudi one month from today.

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