Have you picked up on this vibe? UCLA and USC reaching the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament. It’s, like, the hot, non-conventional line of thinking in the final hours before the tourney begins.

Bill Simmons of espn.com, perhaps the most-read internet sports writer in the country, has the Bruins and Trojans in the Final Four. Others are talking up the Trojans’ chances of going deep in the tournament. And UCLA has been there the past two years.

It would be great fun, if it happened. But it won’t, and here’s why.
Each team has a couple of fatal flaws.

For USC, it’s depth and inexperience.

The Trojans are a six-man team, and that’s being generous because freshman guard Angelo Johnson doesn’t bring much off the bench. You don’t need an eight-man rotation in the NCAAs, you say? Well, yes, that’s true, but you need at least one somebody in reserve who can contribute something positive, and I don’t believe the Trojans have that guy.

I like this USC team. A lot. Especially as O.J. Mayo, a guy I ripped, in print a month ago, improves. The Trojans have speed, quickness, all-around athleticism, a can-score-anytime player in Mayo and great coaching in Tim Floyd, who can out-scheme anyone.

They played three of the four No. 1 seeds, beating UCLA once (at Pauley) in three cracks, holding Kansas to a four-point game at home and taking Memphis to OT at a neutral site. So they’ve seen the best in the NCAA.

But their lack of depth is going to kill them off before they can win the four games necessary to get to San Antonio. And here is all it will take — Taj Gibson or Davon Jefferson getting in foul trouble.

Those are the Trojans’ two big guys. Both of them are very good, genuine back-to-the-basket guys with great leaping and shot-blocking ability. But both are prone to fouls, especially against aggressive teams, and it’s only a matter of time before one of them gets two fouls in the first 10 minutes, etc., and ends up playing 20 minutes and fouling out — and that will be a game the Trojans lose. Could happen today against a decent Kansas State team. Could happen Saturday against Wisconsin. Or next week against a huge Georgetown team, or vs. Kansas.

Remember how USC’s surprise run to the Sweet Sixteen ended last season? Gibson got in foul trouble, sat out some key minutes, North Carolina overcame a 17-point USC lead and the Trojans eventually lost 74-64 — with Gibson having fouled out.

USC’s experience is the other concern. This is not a young team in terms of the calendar, but it is in terms of NCAA experience. Two starters (Mayo, Jefferson) will make their first NCAA appearances today, and the other three (Daniel Hackett, Dwight Lewis, Gibson) are in only their second go-rounds. It sure would be nice if they had that one upperclassman who had been out late dancing before.

As for the Bruins …

I like this team a lot, too. But it also has a couple of glaring weakness: Depth, and scoring balance.

Like the Trojans, the Bruins have almost nothing on the bench. A couple of clumsy big men/foul-givers in Alfred Aboya and Lorenzo Mata-Real and then … James Keefe?

Again, if any of their starting five gets into foul trouble, the Bruins will be in trouble as well.

Oh, and that’s before we take into account the health of forward Luc Mbah a Moute, who suffered an ankle sprain in the Pac-10 tourney and won’t play this weekend, and maybe not next weekend, either. That puts one of the two big oafs (mentioned above) into the starting lineup, and hurts the Bruins’ not-quite-as-good-as-usual defense.

And scoring balance? Kevin Love will get his points (assuming his back holds up). So will Darren Collison. But after that?

Russell Westbrook improved enormously over his freshman season, but he has been slumping. And so has Josh Shipp, which is more ominous.

Shipp is UCLA’s designated three-point shooter, but he has been awful beyond the arc for more than a month — 13-for-62, a miserable 21.0 percent, since the start of February. And most of those were open shots opponents are conceding. His overall FG percentage since Feb. 1 is ugly, too — 51-for-128, 39.8 percent.

That leaves UCLA with only two predictable scorers, Love and Collison. That’s a hard way to win, hoping Westbrook or Shipp come up big for four consecutive games. Six, if they want to win an NCAA title. UCLA has a gimme today, but they begin playing real teams thereafter, and look for them all to pack it in and make UCLA score from the perimeter. If Collison is cold … look out.
One other concern about UCLA is its interior game. Love is a great collegiate player, with a great skill set, but his physical limitations already are obvious. Up against guys as big as he is — but who can jump — he is in trouble. He won’t score well inside, and he’s going to pick up fouls.

I can see UCLA in the Final Four, but not winning it. I can’t envision USC even getting there.

Though it would be lovely.

In theory, the hoops teams could play for the national title, something we figured would happen first in almost any sport except men’s hoops. Maybe someday it will happen, if Ben Howland and Floyd stick around.

Not this year, though.