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The Difficulty of a Coup d’Etat in the Age of Social Media

July 16th, 2016 · No Comments · Uncategorized

All politics aside, I have always been fascinated by the concept of the coup d’etat. This must go back to the 1960s, a particularly busy decade for overthrowing governments — which I would have followed, once the news finally came in.

The coup is about as old as government itself. The oldest on record, recorded in the Bible, is from 876 BC.

The coup is an ultra-dramatic event. And such a zero-sum game. Someone survives or falls; someone takes power or is headed for extinction. Very black and white.

Last night, in Turkey, elements of the military staged a coup against the democratically elected government led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

It became perhaps the first coup in a major country to be followed/consumed via social media, which made it even more interesting — and prompted another late-night vigil to see how things turned out, because so much information was rolling in.

Some key points for a successful coup:

–Have all your ducks in a row before you scramble the first jet or fire the first shot. When you think you are ready, stop and think again.

–It no longer is enough to do what military men in Africa successfully did seemingly every few weeks, in the post-colonial era — capture the government leader, take over the radio station, take over the airport. That could be enough to give the plotters access to the levers of government before much of anyone knew what hit them. Coup as “fait accompli”, that is.

–Oh, and in the modern world, make sure you have a social media strategy.

The men behind the (subsequently failed) coup attempt in Turkey missed at least two key points there.

One was failing to disable social media. Despite reports early in the morning today that Twitter, Facebook and YouTube were down, in Turkey, they were no more than a bit slow for a time, and other social platforms apparently never missed a beat. This alone was enough to kill the coup because it soon became clear that a majority of the Turkish population were against the idea of a coup — and they took to the streets. Which leads to the corollary concerning military men and their countrymen on the streets — they very, very quickly tire of shooting civilians, if they do so at all.

The plotters also failed in the “get the government leader in custody” department. Reports seem to suggest the plotters attempted to arrest Erdogan at his vacation location, but he had left. Oops.

That soon became “double oops”.

“Erdogan” and “social media” came together in an episode that doomed the coup — he was able to get online and speak, via FaceTime, to a Turkish TV station.

(Another botched bit of the coup; the plotters took control of the national TV and radio stations, but didn’t get around to several private broadcasters, including the one that got Erdogan on the line — and he promptly told the people to take to the streets. That was “game over” for the coup.)

Turkey has a recent history of military coups  — three successful takeovers since 1960 — and the Turks clearly were not up for another one.

Soon, tens of thousands of civilians were in the streets, eventually dragging away the soldiers who, in the vast majority of cases, would not shoot at them.

Other issues to take into account, in the modern age of social media, is to wait until you have more information before adding your two cents to Twitter, et al. Don’t assume.

After President Obama and John Kerry, the secretary of state, spoke via phone, the U.S. government called for “support” of the “democratically elected government” and hoped for “restraint” and the avoidance of “violence or bloodshed” … but never mentioned Erdogan’s name. Which we have to assume the Turkish president noticed.

Two particular tweets look, shall we say, awkward, in light of subsequent events.

One came from Brad Sherman, a Californian congressman and a Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, who tweeted: “Military takeover in Turkey will hopefully lead to real democracy – not Erdogan Authoritarianism.”

Another, of course, from the account of Donald Trump, who wrote: “Looks like a military coup underway in #Turkey. They’re taking their country back! Will be the same in the US soon if I’m President!”

We will guess that Erdogan will not attend any Trump inaugural.

Nor will he look kindly on the military men who gambled with their lives they could take control of the country.

 

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