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Round 1 in the Books: Checking Stats, Looking Ahead

June 25th, 2010 · 1 Comment · soccer, World Cup

Most of us are already looking ahead to the second round of the World Cup, but before we consign it to history, a few statistics and observations.

–Is it your imagination, or is this one of the dreariest World Cups, so far?

No, it is not your imagination. It is one of the dreariest World Cups, so far.

An average of 2.10 goals were scored, on average, in the 48 matches of the first round. Unless that pace picks up, the 2010 World Cup will eclipse the 1990 World Cup (2.21 goals per game) for lowest-scoring in history.

Some other “this is dull” numbers:

–We have six scoreless draws in the books, including Brazil-Portugal.

–Ten 1-0 matches have been played. Six finished 1-1 and six more were 2-0. Thus, more than half (28) of the 48 matches thus far finished 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 or 2-0. Zzzzz.

–Four high-scoring shutouts were pitched, ranging from 3-0 to 7-0, meaning that 26 matches ended with one (or both) teams not scoring.

–Guess how many teams came from behind to win. Take a second. Think about it. The answer? TWO. Denmark vs. Cameroon. Denmark trailed 1-0 (at which point I announced, in the office, “No way Denmark wins this thing.”) but scored two to win 2-1. And Greece-Nigeria; same scenario, and I might even have made the same “this is over” announcement. (This second rally a correction, pointed out by a commenter,  below.)

–How many teams in the tournament, through 48 matches, trailed by two goals but managed to get a result? One. The United States vs. Slovenia. Slovenia led 2-0 at halftime, and the U.S. rallied for a 2-2 draw.

–Aside from the U.S.-Slovenia match, how many teams trailed at halftime and got a result? One. Italy-Paraguay. Italy trailed 1-0 at halftime but drew at 1-1.

–What is the record of teams that have scored first in a match in this World Cup? Won 33, tied 7, lost 2.

–How many goals do Lionel Messi, Wayne Rooney, Kaka and Fernando Torres have so far, among them? Zero. Your scoring leaders: David Villa of Spain, Gonzalo Higuain of Argentina, Robert Vittek of Slovakia, each with three.

And one more note about goal-scoring. Of the 101 goals scored in 48 matches so far, 31 teams gave up 89 goals … and one team gave up 12. Yes, c’mon down, North Korea! Without your leaking goals at the rate of one every 22.5 minutes, this tournament would be even more goal-starved than it is — a puny 1.85 goals per match.

OK, the second round. The round of 16. The knockout phase. The Sweet Sixteen, as it would be called in the States.

Most interesting second-round matchups? A tie between Spain vs. Portugal and Germany vs. England.

Weirdest team in the last 16? Japan. I didn’t think Japan would score at this World Cup, and there they are, playing Paraguay — which also is the weirdest round-of-16 pairing, just ahead of Uruguay-South Korea.

We have established that one semifinalist will be a huge surprise — from the perspective of looking ahead before the event began. Anyone who saw the U.S.-Ghana-Uruguay-South Korea foursome coming, well, if you say you did, you’re lying. And who will be the shock semifinalist? I’m thinking Ghana, because my sense is that South Africa 2010 is somehow meant to have an African team in the semis, and Ghana is the only African team left.

Two of the foursomes are semi-tough: Netherlands-Slovakia-Brazil-Chile; and Paraguay-Japan-Spain-Portugal. In the first, the one hard game will be in the quarterfinals (Brazil vs. the Netherlands) and in the other it will be right away (Spain vs. Portugal).

One of the foursomes is the second-round Group of Death: Argentina-Mexico-England-Germany. All three matches here will be hard. Argentina is the favorite, off first-round performance, but remember, the Argentines are led by Diego “El Jefe Loco” Maradona, so they could screw this up.

A review of the continental federations, after the group phase, in terms of how many of its teams are still alive and how many are gone:

South America 5-0; Concacaf (North America) 2-1; Asia 2-2, Oceania 0-1, Europe 6-7, Africa 1-5.

So much for home-continent advantage … but more fodder for the “Euros struggle outside Europe” argument. Getting only six of 13 teams into the second round is by far Europe’s worst performance since the expansion to 32 teams in 1998.

And what is up with South America? The leading theory appears to be … that South America’s leagues don’t generate much cash and the continent loses its top players to Europe routinely and, thus, constantly needs fresh blood from the youth ranks, keeping the talent pipeline clear.

How do I see the tournament from here?

Uruguay 1, South Korea 0; Ghana 2, U.S. 1; Netherlands 2, Slovakia 0; Brazil 2, Chile 0; Argentina 2, Mexico 1; Germany 1, England 1 (Germans win 4-3 on penalties); Paraguay 1, Japan 0; Spain 1, Portugal 1 (Spain wins 5-4 on penalties).

Ghana 2, Uruguay 1; Brazil 2, Netherlands 2 (Brazil in shootout, 4-2); Argentina 1, Germany 1 (Germany wins in shootout, 4-3); Spain 2, Paraguay 0.

Brazil 3, Ghana 1; Spain 1, Germany 0.

Brazil 2, Spain 1.

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1 response so far ↓

  • 1 Dylan // Jun 25, 2010 at 5:26 PM

    Nigeria led Greece 1-0, lost 2-1.

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