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Random Thoughts While Looking at Baseball Stats

September 11th, 2008 · 2 Comments · Baseball

Maybe I have too much time, if I can look up this stuff. Some of it general interest. Some of it is fantasy-oriented. So those of you who hate the idea of hearing about someone’s fantasy team, think of it as stat-musings.

For instance, Bengie Molina, former Angels catcher, now with the Giants?

The big galoot has driven in 83 runs, most by any catcher in the bigs. But he has scored only 40 times — by far the fewest by anyone in the majors with at least 80 RBI.

Second worst?

Jose Guillen of the Kansas City Royals, with 59 runs (19 more than Bengie, that is) against 88 RBI. Next-worst: James Loney of the Dodgers, with 80 RBI but only 60 runs. Followed by Cubs catcher Geovany Soto with 80 and 61.

Anyway …

–I think we can safely declare Bengie to be the worst baserunner in the majors. Among regulars, anyway. We always knew he couldn’t run, from his days with the Angels, but he’s getting worse. He scored only 38 times last year, but he was hitting deeper in the lineup then. This year, he’s been hitting cleanup almost every day, and to score only 40 times while hitting .290 out of the 4-hole in 466 at-bats (including 30 doubles and 12 homers) … that’s serious base-clogging.

OK, in his defense, the Giants offense is awful, and while he had a couple of guys ahead of him in the lineup who were having decent seasons (Randy Winn, Fred Lewis) and were out there to drive in, Aaron Rowand was the only serious hitter (usually) behind him.

But, still … Big Fat Bengie is 34 and listed at 5-11, 225 — which might have been accurate back in 2000, when he scored a career-high 59 times for the Angels. I’d say he’s 240, at least, probably more like 250. I honestly believe I could beat him in a race to first base, and I’m spotting him 20 years. Dude ought to get back to the AL and do some DH-ing, because his bat is useful, even if his legs aren’t.

–What is Jose Guillen’s excuse for 59 runs in more than 550 plate appearances? Well, he never walks (19 times), and his on-base percentage (.294) is among the worst among regulars in ball, and he doesn’t have much of anything behind him, in K.C.

–How many more years do the Dodgers give James Loney before they look for a bigger bat at first base? He’s hitting .297, but he’s not a home-run hitter, which ought to be a source of embarrassment for a guy as big and strapping (6-3, 220) as Loney. He’s got 12 homers in 538 at-bats, far behind his pace of 2007 when he had 15 in 344. His OBP is fine, at .349, but that’s not translating into runs. My sense is he’s a bad baserunner (thought not as bad as Matt Kemp). Some of it is about the stiffs hitting behind him, most of the season. Anyway, power comes a bit late to some guys, so maybe the Dodgers give him two more years.

–Another curious case: Pat Burrell of the Phillies.

A year ago I did a column on Bill James, the baseball stat guru, and when I pressed him to name “the most underrated player” in the bigs (he found the question to be far too imprecise), he came up with “Pat Burrell.”

Anyway, Burrell has 30 homers this season … but only 77 RBI.

It isn’t easy to hit 30 homers and drive in only 77 runs. It isn’t easy to hit 20 homers and have only 77 RBI. Of the 64 big-leaguers with 20 homers or more, as of this writing, only 12 have fewer than 77 RBI, and only four who have 25 homers or more have fewer than 77.

Hitters with the worst ratio of RBI to homers among the whole 20-plus-homer group are Hanley Ramirez (62/29, 2.14), followed by Jack Cust (66/28, 2.36), Adam Dunn (89/36, 2.47), Edwin Encarnacion (62/25, 2.48) and Burrell (77/30, 2.57).

Hanley has a good excuse. He hits leadoff. Nobody is on base for his first at-bat, ever, and the pitchers who hit in front of him are rarely on base, either.

Cust and Encarnacion play for bad teams.

What is Burrell’s excuse? Well, the best is that he hits behind Ryan Howard, who has 42 homers but hits only .241. Almost one-third of Howard’s hits are homers, meaning Howard cleans the bases entirely more often than any player in baseball, currently … and hits .179 on balls that don’t leave the yard (92-for-515) — meaning he’s rarely on base when Burrell comes up.

So, is Burrell the king of the solo homer? A dubious distinction, if so. Is Bill James not paying attention? Not necessarily. Burrell’s career RBI/HR ratio is 3.30, which is way ahead of his pace this year, and if you take out this year the ratio is 3.40, which is perfectly fine.

The real king of the solo homer would appear to be Dunn. He gets significantly fewer RBI per homer than Burrell has this year, and has far fewer in his career — 2.41 to Burrell’s 3.30.

Anyway, it’s tempting to say Dunn and Burrell are the same player … oafish left fielders who walk a lot and go deep when you put one in their wheelhouses, etc. Both have good OBPs (.389, .372) … but Burrell gets far more out of his homers while Dunn somehow scores far more runs — he has scored more runs (692) than he has driven in (661), something I never would have guessed, while Burrell has significantly fewer runs (649) than RBI (818).

So this is just a bad year to have Pat Burrell. Maybe next season will be better, the whole revert to the mean thing.

–Who is Bengie Molina’s opposite number? Who scores like mad but doesn’t drive in anybody?

Among those who have scored at least 80 runs this season, No. 1 is Ichiro Suzuki of the Mariners, whose ratio of RBI to runs (39/93) is .42. Itchy is far out ahead of the pack.

The next most likely to score/least likely to drive in somebody else are Ricky Weeks (40 RBI/85 runs, .47), Fred Lewis (40/81, .49), Akinori Iwamura (41/82, .50,) Skip Schumaker (43/80, .537) and Brian Roberts (98/53, .541).

Well, that’s enough of this, for now. This all started because I have Bengie and Burrell on my team, and I’m in third place in a six-team division. In part, because guys who appear to be run-producers haven’t had well-rounded seasons.

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2 responses so far ↓

  • 1 BGoff // Sep 11, 2008 at 10:49 PM

    Ryan Howard may be leading the league in home runs, but he also has 189 strikeouts this season. Pat the Bat could very well be coming up with the bases empty a lot.

    Mo Vaughn had a quirky stat his first year with the Angels.

    In 1999, Mo hit 33 home runs and 20 doubles, but only scored 63 runs.

    Meaning he only scored 10 tiles, when he didn’t get himself to second base.

    So if he didn’t put himself in position, there was no way to drag his girth around the bases.

  • 2 BGoff // Sep 11, 2008 at 10:59 PM

    I took a closer look at that 1999 Angels team:
    Vaughn had 54 walks and 11 hbp, he hit .281 and had a .358 obp.

    On that same team, Troy Glaus had 29 doubles, 29 home runs and scored 85 times, all with a .240 average.

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