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England’s Top-Four Soccer Day

February 12th, 2016 · No Comments · English Premier League, Football, soccer

In a 20-team soccer league, how often do the top four in the standings meet one of the other three on the same day — two-thirds of the way through a 38-game season?

We must assume someone involved with England’s Premier League, which is increasingly interested in American-style statistics, has looked up the answer to that question.

But for our purposes the answer has to be: “The top four play each other this late in the season … not at all often.”

It is a Sunday doubleheader almost as intriguing as the NFL’s conference championship doubleheader — though it will not automatically tell us who the top two teams will be.

Leicester City (first in the table) at Arsenal (third) followed by Tottenham (second) at Manchester City (fourth).

Some thoughts about those two matches:

Leicester City is the story of the season, and if it can hold onto its five-point lead and win the Premier League — despite a starting XI that often costs less, collectively, than individual players on the “big” clubs — they could turn out to be the European football story of the decade … the half century … the century … the millennium …

This is a team with great balance and team spirit, led by an underrated coach, Claudio Ranieri, which has been using the same tactics since Week 1 — and succeeding with them: Sit with nine or 10 behind the ball, and counter-attack in a flash when chances arrive.

Jamie Vardy leads the league in goals, and Riyad Mahrez could be the league’s most dangerous attacking force.

Leicester, almost universally picked for relegation, leads the league in goals (with 47, the same at Manchester City), and as the weeks go by, the anticipated collapse of a “little” club is less likely and the chances of an astonishing championship improve.

But away, to Arsenal? When Arsenal played at Leicester, back in September, the Gunners obliterated the little guys 5-2.

The question is whether that match offers some sort of game plan for Arsene Wenger’s team … or whether it represented a rare off day for City.

Too, Arsenal sides of recent vintage have an infuriating habit of failing to win vital matches that could indicate the drive and determination to end the club’s championship drought — which extends back to 2004. Losing this one (or settling for a draw, almost as damaging, leaving Arsenal five points behind Leicester) would be the latest in a long line.

In the evening, surging Tottenham seeks to improve its surge of positive results, a surge that has carried it past Arsenal and City (and Manchester United and Chelsea) into position to win the Premier League for the first time.

Like Leicester, Tottenham also has a fine Latin coach, in Mauricio Pochettino, and his side has the best defensive record in the league –  often a mark of a future champion.

However, Spurs have not won a top-flight championship since 1961, despite a series of generally competent teams in recent history, and the sense of “chokers” lingers around the club — just as it has, more recently, with their London rivals, Arsenal.

Harry Kane and Erik Lamela are the key figures in attack, and figure to have chances against Manchester City’s shaky defense. Meanwhile, Toby Alderweireld, perhaps the best defender in the league, will be tested by some of the world’s best-paid attacking players.

Manchester City is down to fourth after its 3-1 smackdown by Leicester City last week and may be discombobulated by the recent announcement that coach Manuel Pellegrini will be gone after this season (despite two championships) and replaced by Pep Guardiola.

City still has strengths, led by Sergio Aguero, who seems to score in every game he is fit enough to appear in, and Joe Hart, a fine goalkeeper. Their midfield looks shaky, given that Yaya Toure appears in decline, and decline comes fast to a soccer player as heavy as Toure.

City is a hard team to love, unless you prefer formerly middling teams purchased by a rich sheikh who then spent hundreds of billions on buying up every good player around until the club won something.

So, No. 1 versus No. 3, No. 2 versus No. 4 (Aston Villa v Liverpool in between).

It will not decide a champion, or a final two, but it is a particularly interesting Sunday for England football fans.

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