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Can Dodgers Win a World Series for First Time in 28 Years?

October 2nd, 2016 · No Comments · Baseball, Dodgers

It was only yesterday — October of 1988 — that the Dodgers won the World Series. They beat the Oakland Athletics in five games, behind Kirk Gibson (a Game 1 homer you may have heard about) and right-hander Orel Hershiser, who was pretty much unhittable in winning twice.

That was the sixth Major League Baseball championship for the club, and its fifth in 31 seasons in Los Angeles, which was a pretty good rate of return for one of the game’s most successful franchises.

Then … 27 seasons without a ring.

It gets worse. The club has not reached the World Series since that 1988 championship, and only in the past few years has it advanced as far as the National League Championship Series — losing 4-1 to the Phillies in 2008 and 2009 and 4-2 to the St. Louis Cardinals in 2013.

The Dodgers are back in the playoffs, versus National League East champions Washington, after winning a fourth successive NL West title. They have no problem getting to the playoffs; it’s moving forward in them that is the problem.

Can this team get to the World Series … and even win it?

The Dodgers and their long-suffering fans (those under age 30 have no memory of 1988) have some things going for them.

Starting with Clayton Kershaw. The left-hander missed a significant chunk of the season, but he has come back in the final month and been fairly Kershaw-ish, which is a good place to start.

Of course, the three-time Cy Young Award winner has a dismal history in the postseason, a 2-6 record and a 4.59 ERA in 13 appearances, 10 of them starts. (A friend of the blog, David Lassen, believes Kershaw has a Cardinals problem more than a playoffs problem, and his postseason stats lend that notion some credence.)

The Dodgers also have a much more significant offense than we could have expected, back at the start of the season — 14th in scoring despite playing their home games in a pitcher-friendly park.

–Justin Turner has, at age 31, become a significant force, with 27 home runs and 90 RBI. This is a guy who joined the club two years ago as a utility infielder, with a career best in homers of four, in 2011.

–Corey Seager, the shortstop who is all but certain to win the Rookie of the Year award, had 26 home runs, 105 runs, 40 doubles and 70 RBI. He is the man the Dodgers count to be on base when Turner hits.

–Adrian Gonzalez, whose decline seemed to be picking up speed, at midseason, finished with 90 RBI and 18 homers and clearly isn’t quite done yet.

–Joc Pederson and Yasmani Grandal are sometimes overlooked, but the former hit 25 homers and the latter 27, and Grandal also is a fine catcher. The Dodgers have four guys with 25 homers for the first time since 1977.

–If Yasiel Puig, who ranges from inspiring to infuriating in a matter of minutes, continues to play as he did at the end of the year (recalled after his banishment to Triple A) the Dodgers could have an offense good enough to trouble the Nationals’ strong pitching.

–Rich Hill and Kenta Maeda, after Kershaw, appear to give the Dodgers three solid starting pitchers, and rookie left-hander Julio Urias, who seems to be improving by the day, seems likely to be the No. 4 starter.

–If the club’s sometimes spotty middle relief holds up, the Dodgers likely can get Kenley Jansen (47 saves, 104 strikeouts in 68.2 innings) to finish off the game.

Areas of concern, however, are there.

–The Dodgers were No. 5 in “fewest runs allowed”, but the Nationals were No. 2. Max Scherzer will throw the opener on Friday, and he is very strong. The quality falls off thereafter, with Stephen Strasburg apparently out for the series and Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark apparently pitching Games 2 and 3.

–The Nationals were eighth in MLB scoring, thanks in part to careeer years from second baseman Daniel Murphy and catcher Wilson Ramos. however, the former is trying to come back from a leg strain and the former is out with a trashed knee. The Nats have other threats, beginning with base-stealing rookie Trea Turner, who had a fabulous final six weeks, and the 23-year-old kid named Bryce Harper, who had an oddly subdued year (24 homers, after 42 the year before) and could break out at any moment. Some think he could be/ought to be the Mike Trout of the National League.

The Dodgers will be doing well to get past the Nationals, who have a drought of their own — having never advanced in the playoffs.

What is sobering for Dodgers fans is knowing they could beat the Nationals — and then have to face the best two teams in baseball in the Chicago Cubs (in the NLCS) and the Boston Red Sox (in the World Series).

Both of those teams appear to be better than the Dodgers. Significantly better.

If the Dodgers are to win a World Series, they will need the sort of “playing better than we are” performance of 1988, when they eliminated the New York Mets before taking out the “best team in baseball” Oakland Athletics.

Could happen, but the past 27 seasons have demonstrated that miracles don’t happen very often.

 

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